Don’t panic yet, Democrats. The 2010 elections are still a year away.

   But the respected, nonpartisan Cook Political Report just lowered - slightly - the chances of Rep. Ike Skelton winning re-election for the 17th straight time.

   Its latest assessment of the race shifted Missouri’s 4th Congressional District from a “likely” Democratic seat to one that only “leans” Democratic.

   “We continue to see Skelton as the favorite, but our rating reflects the belief that this race will be much more competitive than races Skelton has had to face in the past,” said Cook political analyst David Wasserman.

   Skelton has held the seat since the late 1970s and always wins big. He’s an institution at home who draws votes from both parties, which is why he continues to win when on paper, his district is more Republican than Democrat.

    But while he’s still popular at home, President Obama is not. If that continues and the conservative backlash against Washington continues to build – and it shows no signs thus far of letting up – Wasserman said Skelton could face trouble.

   The question is whether 2010 will be a “wave election” like 1994 and 2006 when one party swept at the polls. Even political icons can get caught in the undertow.

    “Democrats are doing everything they can to shore up veterans such as Skelton,” Wasserman said. “The notion that he could be vulnerable surprises a lot of people, including Republicans.”