If Clay Chastain thought his teleconference with regional transportation planners was "grim," apparently his meeting didn't go too well with the Greater KC Chamber of Commerce either.
In its Nov. 13 Internet newsletter, "The City Haller," the chamber did some number crunching on the Chastain rail plan. The results weren't good.
First, the chamber took aim at Chastain's claim that the feds would match 60 percent of the cost of his light rail plan. Indeed, FTA officials have told this correspondent that the average federal share for rail runs 50 to 60 percent. But the chamber looked at recently approved rail projects in Orlando, Sacramento and New Jersey.
Orlando and Sacramento are getting a 50 percent match while New Jersey is getting 35 percent.
Second, the chamber questioned where the local bus agency is going to come up with $250 million over 25 years to pay for rail. The chamber estimated that Chastain's proposal depends on the ATA diverting about a quarter of its city funding to light rail at a time when its already struggling to sustain existing bus service.
Thirdly, about that $300 million from the state of Missouri. "State revenues are down 10.5% from one year ago. In order to balance the budget, Governor Jay Nixon has withheld hundreds of millions of dollars and is expected to have another round of withholds between now and January. Insiders fear that Missouri legislators are going to be faced with cutting existing departments and programs, like education and Medicaid," the chamber wrote in its newsletter.
What the chamber didn't mention is that Missouri only provides $4 million a year for transit. Chastain's proposal would eat up all of the state's current transit expenses for 75 years unless the legislature wants to jack up the amount.
Fourthly, what about the $250 million in private contributions that would pay for the plan?
"Such an assumption means Kansas Citians would have to average $10 million a year in donations to help fund his transportation system. The only privately funded transportation system in the country is the Las Vegas monorail. Transportation experts are quick to point out that Las Vegas is a highly unusual circumstance. The monorail was built by private casino interests hoping to enhance their business."
Las Vegas Monorail
Moroever, this only private US transit system is nearing bond default, as we predicted in our report published before the project was begun. See: http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-lvmono-0006.pdf
Basic problem was that the promoters greatly exaggerated ridership projections, which is fairly routine for transit projects. Our projection, in the report above, was fairly accurate.
For description of the financial situation see: http://demographia.blogspot.com/2008/08/las-vegas-monorail-bonds-more-bad-news.html
As for the Chastain proposal, your comments are right on. However, local officials should be aware that whatever cost is being talked about now, it will likely take about twice as much, based upon the international experience. With respect to federal funding, cost overruns are the local responsibility and your comments on the likelihood of Missouri state support are correct.
Anyone who thinks this can be done for anything like $250 million in local funds has probably already bought the Brooklyn Bridge a time or two.