Congressman Jerry MoranSee Jerry Moran run.
See Jerry Moran run fast.
See Jerry Moran build a big lead in the polls and a big, big lead in fund-raising.
That’s the state of Kansas’ U.S. Senate race as 2009 winds down.
At some point, a fair question becomes: Can Tiahrt still do it? Is there enough in the tank for the congressman from Wichita to pull off a win over Moran in next year’
Congressman Todd Tiahrts GOP primary?
Winning that intra-party skirmish is an especially valuable prize this time around because the winner may just automatically become the winner in November, too. Democrats have no candidate and, as of last week, absolutely zero prospects for landing anyone of stature.
The whispering among some members of the Kansas political class last week centered on whether Tiahrt would even remain in a race that now tilts decidedly uphill.
But Tiahrt’s camp is expressing a steely resolve to not only stick it out, but to whip Moran down the home stretch.
Aides lay claim to a not-so-secret weapon — legions of die-hard conservatives who, they say, prefer the Wichita congressman to the congressman from Hays. Those voters may not show up in polls because they don’t trust them enough to agree to be surveyed.
But history shows they are as reliable as hot summer days when it comes to turning out to vote in primary elections that most folks care little about.
“I will tell you it’s not a double-digits race,” Tiahrt aide Chuck Knapp said of the polls. “I know it’s not.”
Still, gut feelings are one thing, supposedly scientific polls something else. In the one public poll that’s been released, by SurveyUSA, Moran had vaulted to a 43-27 percent lead as of early October with 30 percent still undecided.
The result showed decided movement toward Moran. In April, the finding was a virtual deadlock — 39-35 Moran, a set of numbers well within the poll’s margin of error.
The split on the fund-raising front was even more daunting for Tiahrt. As of Sept. 30, he had $1.4 million in his campaign account compared to Moran’s $3.5 million.
Tiahrt says pundits like me are looking at the “easy” markers.
“What you don’t know is what I’m doing on the ground,” he says, a reference to the more covert, grass-roots, get-out-the-vote effort that propelled Barack Obama so effectively a year ago.
Moran’s camp doesn’t buy the notion that Tiahrt will get all the conservatives. In fact, even some Tiahrt supporters acknowledge little more than a penny’s worth of difference between the two on matters of deep concern to the right.
“Frankly, they are pretty close on the issues,” said state Rep. Arlen Siegfreid, an Olathe Republican.
Case in point: the conservative Family Research Council gave Moran a 100 percent score in 2008. Tiahrt got the same number. The American Conservative Union gave Moran a 92 score in 2008, Tiahrt a 91.
Still, some Republicans insist there are distinctions to be made. The trusted Almanac of American Politics describes Moran’s voting record as moderate, Tiahrt’s as conservative.
The campaign ahead is sure to clarify the distinctions.
But Todd Tiahrt had better start running real fast, real soon.
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We poke fun a lot here about the woeful state of the Kansas Democratic Party.
But for the record, let’s note that the party has recruited two top-line contenders for Congress next year: state Sen. Laura Kelly of Topeka in the state’s 2nd District, and state Rep. Raj Goyle of Wichita for the 4th District seat Tiahrt is vacating.
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The recent House vote on health care reform said one thing very clearly: 17-term Democratic Congressman Ike Skelton of Missouri is scared silly.
Six-term Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore, who has spent years running for his political life, is feeling a little more confident.
Almost inexplicably for a veteran member in House leadership, Skelton voted no on his party’s chief domestic priority while Moore supported it.
Two Republicans are running against Skelton while one Republican is in the que against Moore.
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“We don’t know who’s at the wheel — the captain or the first mate.” — Mike Burke, announcing his campaign for Kansas City mayor last week in a reference to incumbent Mayor Mark Funkhouser and his wife, Gloria Squitiro.
To reach Steve Kraske, call 816-234-4312 or send e-mail to skraske@kcstar.com.
No contest
Moran v. Tiahrt? Todd won't last through the first round.
He's fighting above his weight, is too slow on his feet, acts punch drunk, and he's down on points.
That will be the best part of the 2010 election in Kansas. Not that Jerry wins, but that we can expect to be rid of Todd once and for all.
And Raj Goyle will take his place!