John McCain is within six point of Barack Obama, according to the latest Gallup daily tracking poll.
The results of this edition of the daily poll would not yet take into account performances in Wednesday night's final debate. But they would seem to give hope to a McCain campaign that hasn't had a lot of good poll news lately.
The polling group also notes that the result also record Obama's first sub-50 percent showing in 12 days. The result in this poll are Obama 49 percent _ McCain 43.
Gallup notes they have now run two scenarios for the vote in November. The first, people who say they intend to vote, shows a similar six point lead for Obama: 51 percent -45 percent.
But the second:
"The 'traditional' likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error."
As always, it's a poll, and a national one, not a state by state one. The margin for error is +/- 2.
But it would seem in to indicate that this election is not yet over.
The "traditional" model
I might buy that the election is much closer.
But is this a "typical" election year? Republicans aren't exactly fired up about voting for John McCain. Anecdotal evidence, here and elsewhere, suggests Republicans are at best lukewarm in their support for McCain.
On the other hand, Democrats are largely enthusiastic about voting this year. I know and have met quite a few people who will vote for Obama even if they have to crawl over broken glass to do so.
Looking at the polls, Democrats do enjoy a big advantage in voter enthusiasm.
It's a weird year. I don't think the label "typical" or the "traditional model" are going to apply.