Barack Obama has moved into a statistically significant lead over John McCain for the first time in a couple weeks.
In fact, the 48 percent to 44 percent lead in the latest Gallup Tracking Poll, matches the lead Obama had in the poll September 4, before the Sarah Palin GOP acceptance speech figured into voter opinions. Following that speech, McCain spent about two weeks leading in the poll, until Wednesday.
Now, Obama's upswing matches an increase in the number of consumers saying they have a negative view of the economy. In the past week, that poll has shown the number of people with negative view going from 70 to 78 percent. During the same time, the number of people with a positive view has fallen from 12 percent to five percent.
Of course, as always, polls, especially national ones, don't mean anything (pollsters call them a snapshot of a moment in time). And this is a national poll, not a state by state, so no clues to electoral votes. But the trend seems to indicate that this race is back to where it was before the conventions, with Obama with a significant though not definitive, lead, and McCain once again looking at playing catch-up.




Is it the economy?
Yes.
This has been another edition of Simple Answers to Simple Questions.